Morning Market Insight

August 13th, 2018
Alek Heier
Grain Marketing Specialist
 
CORN: As of 7:45- Down 5

USDA raised the corn yield 4.4bpa to a record number of 178.4bpa. This was 2.2bpa above the average estimate prior to the report. U.S. production is estimated at 14.586bb, up 356 million from July. USDA also raised exports 125mb from the last report and increased overall usage to soften the impact of larger production. Globally, 18/19 carryout projections increase 3.5mmt to 155.49mmt but still well below last year’s 193.33mmt. Notable world changes were Brazil production lowered 1.5mmt.
 
SOYBEANS: As of 7:45- Down 8
The soybean market drifted lower heading into the USDA report on Friday, then losses accelerated after the USDA raised their yield projection over 3bpa to 51.6bpa, well above the average trade guess of around 49.6bpa. Another key factor pushing the unfavorable price response was the 2018/19 carryout projection topping out at 785 million bushels, the largest on record. In other news- US and China trade talks appear to be seeing no headway as the U.S. misses out on continuing to be a trade partner with the world’s largest soybean buyer.
 
WHEAT: As of 7:45- MPLS down 16, KC down 14
US wheat futures also ended the day lower on Friday, coming under pressure from a weaker corn and soy market move. The USDA lowered U.S. carryout 50mb to 935 million, raising exports 50mb. Globally, the USDA lowered its 18/19 carryout projection less than expected, down 1.9mmt from July to 258.96mmt. This is well below last year’s carryout of 273.07mmt but still slightly above the 16/17 carryout of 257.19mmt and well above the 15/16 carryout of 244.22mmt. U.S. harvest continues across the northern plains, with strong HRW yields being seen in Montana. HRS yields in major spring wheat growing areas appear to be better than the market needs with mostly superior quality. Proteins are variable as early high protein has started to give way to 13 pro in many areas.
 

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