Morning Market Insight

August 28th, 2018
Alek Heier
Grain Marketing Specialist
 

 The government issued the details of their proposal on farm aid, impacted from the current trade spat with China. The farmers are expected to receive payment on 50% of their production of corn (1 cent/bu), beans $1.65/bu), sorghum (86 cents/bu), wheat (14 cents/bu), cotton (6 cents/lb), pork($8/per head) and dairy (12 cents/cwt) with a $125k cap for each individual farmer.

CORN: As of 7:45- Up ¼
Corn traded lower yesterday on spillover weakness in the wheat market, and on the prospect of a large yield. Losses were limited due to strong exports coming in at 1.2mmt- this was near the top end of estimates. Not much changed in the overnight with a light trading session seeing some support from the overnight wheat market. Crop conditions remained unchanged at 68% G/E, 61% dented, and 10% mature. There is news of a deal being made (tentatively) with Mexico to alleviate some of the strain on the market.


SOYBEANS: As of 7:45- Down 1- ½
The soybean market traded lower yesterday on news of a big crop on the way. Couple that with the lack of resolution between the U.S. and China on trade relations. Strong weekly export inspections and a weaker U.S. $ did provide some support to the market. Crop conditions came in at 66% G/E- this was unchanged from last week. The Midwest crop tour pegged the U.S. bean yield at 53 bpa, which is above the USDA estimate of 51.6 bpa.


WHEAT: As of 7:45- MPLS up 3, KC up 4
The wheat market was down yesterday due to the large supply of global stocks, despite a weaker $, but trended upward in the overnight on profit taking and technical buying. The U.S. stocks continue to climb with spring wheat harvest beginning to wind down. USDA puts HRS harvest at 77%, but many believe that is behind the actual percentage.
 

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