Morning Market Insight

July 12, 2018
Travis Antonsen
Producer Marketing Manager

The markets are mostly ‘green on the screen’ this morning as we await the USDA Supply/Demand report at 11am……
CORN:  As of 7:45 – Up 2
The Dec contract put in new lows yesterday as it hovers right above the $3.50 mark.  Weather is perceived to be favorable for the US crop that is maturing at a quicker pace than normal.  Average trade guess for old crop corn carry out at 2.115 billion bushels and the 2018/19 carryout at 1.725.   Keep an eye on world production and stocks numbers in the report this morning (I mention a Ukraine corn tidbit in the wheat section below).  Export sales this morning were bleak at 15.8 million bushels, this was below expetations.

SOYBEANS:  As of 7:45 – Up 3
Nov bean futures pierced the $8.50 level yesterday, but are trading just above that level this morning.  2018/19 carryout estimates are at 498 million bushels in this morning’s report.  The focus will definitely be on what USDA does with exports given the trade/tariff environment we are currently in. The price disparity between US and Brazilian beans is as wide as $1.50……seems irrational, but it may mean Brazilian crushers could be able to source US beans cheaper than their domestic beans due to China’s posture on tariffs of US beans.  Export sales this morning were below expectations at 5.8 million bushels

WHEAT:  As of 7:45 – Mpls Down 1, KC Up 2
Starting off in world news…..Ukraine’s Wheat estimate was cut by 3% according to the Ukraine Grain Association (on a side note…..USDA did drop Ukraine corn production from 30mmt to 24.5mmt)  Europe looks to have the smallest wheat harvest in 6 years due to dryness in the north and too much rain in France (their top grower).  Watching to see what USDA does with these numbers in today’s report……

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