Morning Market Insight

July 13, 2018
Travis Antonsen
Producer Marketing Manager

Its Friday the 13th and the final day of a rough week for the grain markets……
CORN:  As of 7:45 – Down 2
The corn market finished the day 5 ¾ cents higher following the USDA S/D report release.  Ending stocks were lowered a touch as demand segments were increased to more than offset the bump in production for 18/19.  World stocks of corn also continued their decline and lent some support as well.  Heavy rains and flash flooding across southern SD and Southern MN is occurring this morning and bringing more precip to already saturated areas.  The forecast is for cooler temps for the next week and more precip for areas that could use a drink (MO, IL)……what I think is pressuring the market overnight and into this morning.

SOYBEANS:  As of 7:45 – Down 8
Not necessarily a surprise to the market, the USDA dropped export demand for soybeans for the upcoming crop year due to the tariff tiff with China…..however, it was the magnitude of the change that surprised a few.  Exports were lowered by 250 million bushels for the 18/19 crop year…..a 10.9% reduction.  At the same time world ending stocks of soybeans were increased in a big way.  The good news is that the market handled this news in stride and had most of this figured in.
WHEAT:  As of 7:45 – Mpls Steady, KC Up 4
The trend for Black Sea, Europe, and Australian wheat production continues to work lower and could potentially bring some business back to the US.  HRS production is pegged at 584 million bushels, well above last year’s drought plagued 385 million bushel crop.  That market still has a stocks to use ration above 51%, indicating a solid cushion.  HRW production was reported at 657 million bushels, approx. 100 million less than the big crop of 2017.  That class of wheat now has a stocks to use ratio that is below the 50% mark for the first time since 14/15. 

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