Morning Market Insight

June 12, 2018
Abbey Kittelson
Grain Marketing Specialist

The USDA will release their monthly Supply/Demand Report today at 11am. Please contact your grain marketing specialist to place a target and take advantage of increased volatility!

CORN – As of 7:45 – up 3

A tough day yesterday on corn, with the nearby July contract ending down 10 ½ cents. The US crop appears to be doing very well, judging by the weekly crop ratings that were posted yesterday afternoon at 77% good/excellent. Today’s supply and demand numbers are expected to show small reductions to the US balance sheet, along with a lower world production due to drought in South America. The trade’s average guess for US 18/19 carryout is pegged at 1.663bbu vs. 1.682 in May. Overnight, we are seeing small gains as the trade tries to position itself ahead of the report.

SOYBEANS – As of 7:45 – up 4

Soybeans yesterday saw double digit losses across the board. The November contract dipped to the lowest level we have seen since mid-January (chart below). Weather in the US is generally favorable as rains the past few days have fallen across major growing areas, and trade with the Chinese is still uncertain. USDA this morning is expected to increase 18/19 carryout from 415mbu in May to 417, and very minor changes to the 17/18 balance sheet.

WHEAT – As of 7:45 – KC up 4, MNPLS up 2

Despite valiant efforts to climb back to the upside today, wheat prices followed the rest of the grains lower on the day. Minny ended down 2 ¾ cents and Kansas City was down 3 ½. Winter wheat harvest has started in the southern plains, and yield reports are mostly what they were expected to be, although we have seen a few scattered reports of a better-than-expected yield. Quality has been good and protein is higher than last year – over 12.0 pro has been common. The USDA report this morning expects 17/18 and 18/19 balances to be near 1.0bbu.

WHEAT:  As of 7:45 – Mpls up 1, KC Up 3

ND got solid rains over the weekend.  In the world price arena…..US wheat was $0.60/bushel more expensive than Canadian and Australian wheat in the Iraq tender.  Watching the USDA report tomorrow on what they do with the Russian wheat crop size estimate.  HRW harvest was in full force over the weekend in KS and elevators are noting higher protein content in this year’s wheat crop.

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