Morning Market Insight

Penny for your thoughts on National Nickel Day

May 16, 2018

Abbey Kittelson
Grain Marketing Specialist

TODAY IN HISTORY: 1843 – The first major wagon train heading for the Pacific Northwest sets out on the Oregon Trail with one thousand pioneers from Elm Grove, Missouri.
CORN – As of 7:45 – up 2
Yesterday’s corn market ended 5 cents higher on a struggling Brazilian crop and planting delays in the US from potential rain events this weekend. Will acres be switched to beans?? Seeing follow-through support overnight and the July contract has made its way back above the 4.00 mark (chart below). Additional support was gained from active fund buying. As the US farmer continues attempts at planting, active selling on his part is rather slow, although there are offers popping up here and there around 4.25 Dec. Remember – the highest the Dec contract has been in nearly a year happened during a crop report! Hint, hint: get your targets in – they work!

SOYBEANS – As of 7:45 – down 7
After seeing a 20-cent trading range yesterday, July futures managed to close up 1 on the day. Unfortunately, we are seeing 6-7 cent losses overnight. The US dollar firmed again, and that makes it hard to come across export sales (which are already lower than we would like to see). Weaker currency in South America also adds to pressure on US prices. Trade relations between the US and China are a big news maker, and talks are still happening. NOPA Crush came in at 161.015 mbu, which was within the range of estimates.
WHEAT – As of 7:45 – KC up 3, MNPLS up 4
Yesterday’s trade started out sharply lower due to the firming of the US dollar & poor exports, rain in the US and Russia, and unexpected crop ratings improvement. As the day went on, the wheat complex started to follow row crops higher. Strange, due to the factors I spoke of first, which should have made for a bearish trading day in wheat. Egypt’s GASC tendered for wheat and bought 60k tonnes from Ukraine. Many questions lie ahead about the yields in the Southern Plains HRW belt, and large old crop supplies still loom. Overnight, dryness in the US is supporting the wheat market.

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