Morning Market Insight

May 17, 2018
Abbey Kittelson
Grain Marketing Specialist

Time to clean out the attic? Today is National Pack Rat Day!

CORN – As of 7:45 – up 2

Yesterday’s trade ended 2-3 cents as corn followed the soy complex after fears of trade tensions between the US and China hit again. Brazil was able receive some rains as well, helping out their second crop that has been plagued with persistent dry weather. In the United States, there are a few weather issues here and there, ranging from too wet to plant, to needing a shot of rain soon. Export sales were decent at 38.8 mbu, which was on the high end of trade guesses and 11 mbu over last week’s number. Hearing reports of a few more acres of corn being planted here and there. Dec corn has made its way high enough to around the 4.20 level that it makes sense… farmers like to plant corn!

SOYBEANS – As of 7:45 – up 5

China continues to dominate headlines. That was the case yesterday as soybeans had a tough day after word hit via POTUS’s tweets that trade agreements between the United States and the Black Hole of Soy Demand are farther away than previously hoped for. The nearby July contract lost 19 cents on the day and closed below the 10.00 mark for the first time since early February. The US dollar closed up over 100 points, although this was well off of the early highs. The Brazilian Real hovers around all-time lows versus our currency. Overnight, soybeans are trying to bounce back as reports of poor quality in Argentina hit the market. Export sales were weak at 10.4 mbu – below last week and the expected range.

WHEAT – As of 7:45 – KC up 9, MNPLS up 7

During a choppy trade yesterday, the weight of lower row crop futures pulled wheat away from highs during the mid-day, but they were able to end on a higher note thanks to a late surge in KC winter wheat. Dryness in Russia and Ukraine persist, and about 40% of the crop in those areas has seen well below normal precipitation. Australian wheat areas are also facing dry weather, and no show of relief in the 7-10-day forecast. Additionally, parts of the HRW and SRW areas in the US and Canada face dry weather. The bearish news? It hasn’t changed: there is a LOT of wheat in the world. As production continues to be a question, the trade will continue to wrestle those two factors. Export sales were small at 2.3 mbu, but above last week’s number at 1.3. Today’s number was within trade estimates.

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