Morning Market Insight

October 11th, 2018
Alek Heier
Grain Marketing Specialist

 
October USDA report is out at 11am today.  See the trade estimates below.  Do you have a target price in mind to capture a potential rally on the report release?

CORN: As of 7:45- Down 2
Lower on the overnight trade as Dec18 hangs around $3.60 and technical start to show negative signs pulling away from the 50 day moving average of $3.66. USDA report comes out at 11am today with average carryout estimate sitting at 1.919bb. Average yield estimate sitting at 181.8 bpa. China seems to have sold 3mmt out of 4mmt of corn offered at their state reserve action today. WCB weather appears to show some hope of clearing up for extended time to possibly allow for some harvest activity to begin again.


SOYBEANS: As of 7:45- Down 4
Lower overnight as Nov18 futures dip back below the $8.50 mark. We have been on a price rally starting in September from a low of $8.12 to last week’s high of $8.74. WCB is starting to clear up weather wise, but we are seeing some reports of quality and sprout damage in the areas that have had warm enough weather for sprouting. USDA is expected to show the US carryout more than double year on year- 898mb for 18/19. With the average yield estimate coming in at 53.3bpa. CONAB calls Brazilian production 117-120mmt at this point.


WHEAT: As of 7:45- MPLS unchanged, KC up 2
USDA carryout estimate is 950mb for the 18/19 crop year, compared to last month’s 935mb, with export demand running behind projections. SovEcon has raised their projection for the Russian wheat crop from 69mmt to 69.8mmt. US has plenty of supply with mostly routine business- the recent sale to Bangladesh being the outlier. Both the US and Canada have wheat standing in the field with some seeing snow on that crop at this point.

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